The Christian Chiropractor Commentary

When The Masks Come Off

I’m often asked when will things get back to normal?  Since I no longer know what “normal” exactly is, I’ll rephrase the question to “what needs to happen so we can behave as we did prior to the pandemic (no masks, no social distancing, no plastic barriers, eating inside or visiting a movie theater without fear of infection)?”

Early in the pandemic we spoke of herd immunity, that point when enough people have enough exposure either through infection or vaccination to create enough antibodies so that the virus essentially has few victims, thereby reducing its spread to a relative trickle.  The experts are no longer talking about herd immunity, partially due to vaccine hesitancy, partially due to more quickly waning immunity post infection or post vaccination, partially due to the inherent contagiousness of the delta variant.  Instead, they now talk about a future endemic versus our current pandemic.  An endemic virus continues to travel through humanity in waves instead of surges, with these waves occurring in smaller communities, like a school or a city, as opposed to a state or a country or the whole world.  We are quickly moving to an endemic virus perhaps similar to flu but still vastly more contagious that seasonal flu, and it may not be particularly seasonal.  Sure it will spread more quickly when the weather is cold with people inside or gathered for holidays, but will still be around a force year-round.  With that as background, if you are high risk or live with high risk people, what circumstances would make you comfortable to toss your mask permanently?  Here is my answer.

First, I would require for my entire bubble to be fully vaccinated.  Done. 

Second, I would need to for the transmission rate in the community I am currently in to be “low,” which is defined by the CDC as fewer than 10 new cases per 100,000 people over a 7 day period and a test positivity rate less than 5% over the same 7 day period. 

Let’s delve into the current numbers.  Per the CDPH (Cal Dept of Public Health), the daily case rate for CA is 11.5 (5.8 for the fully vaxxed and 40.2 for the unvaxxed) with a test positivity rate of 2.4%.  The daily case rate for where I live, Orange County, is 6.9 with a test positivity rate of 2.7%.  The community where I work, San Bernardino County, as a case rate of 15.5 and a 4.8% positivity rate, about twice that of O.C.  Per this analysis I can shed my mask in the OC but not while I’m at my office or in the greater California.  If I were to travel to Los Angeles County for example where the case rate is just above 10, my mask stays on.  And if I were to travel to another state or country the local rates on the ground would dictate my behavior.  In conclusion, my second requirement to allow normal behavior is being met here and there, but far from being universal.  Getting closer.

Third, my bubble needs on-demand access to at home treatment for COVID19 so I or anybody in my bubble can do more than just wait and see if we get sick enough to need to go the E.R.  This is coming from Pfizer and Merck by the beginning of 2022. 

That’s it.  Three things, one of which is done and the other two are near at hand.  This means that as long as the numbers continue to decline, I expect my need for protective behavior will be over early 2022.  I had predicted in 2020 that normalcy would return in the 3^rd quarter of 2021, but delta ruined that prediction.  Finger’s crossed. 

P.S. I have one additional wish that would be the icing on the cake, delta specific boosters.  I assume by what I read that these are coming in 2022. 

P.P.S As I stated above, endemic viruses come and go in waves while pandemic viruses come and go in surges.  Therefore, just because the numbers are good this week we cannot assume they will be good next week, so I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled.